Information about how Defence Estates (DE) is working towards ensuring maximum resilience and maintaining the operational capacity of the MOD estate in a changing climate.
The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report has drawn a line under the question of whether man-made climate change is happening. The climate is changing in the UK and in other countries around the world. Evidence of this is demonstrated by rising global temperatures, diminishing polar ice caps, increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and species migration. The debate now focuses on where effects will be felt and how severe they will be rather than just its occurrence.
The causes of these changes are largely attributed to man made emissions of Green House Gases (GHG), such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2), which trap heat in the atmosphere. GHGs persist in the atmosphere, which means that the warming effect they create will continue to have an impact for several years after they are emitted. It can take around 100 years for CO2 to disperse (even after some of it is absorbed by vegetation). Therefore, even if CO2 emissions were stopped immediately, the effects would still influence our weather for years to come.
This means that there will be inevitable changes, and it is vital to adapt in order to prepare for the impact of these changes, minimise disruption and maximise the resilience of the estate.
Aircraft Engineering Technicians (AETs) of 815 Naval Air Squadron (NAS), battle to raise Type 23 Frigate HMS Argyll’s flight deck safety netting off the coast of Scotland, during force nine weather conditions.
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Adaptation to Climate Change in the UK
According to the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) the UK will experience changing patterns of temperature and precipitation and more extreme weather including heat waves, droughts, heavier downpours (as the atmosphere is warming, it is becoming more moist), more intense and frequent storms, sea level rise and greater storm surges.
Climate change poses a source of uncertainty. It is necessary to identify the risks of climate change and prepare for the impact of these changes, this is termed adaptation and it is now recognised as an urgent political issue.
The UK Climate Change Act which received Royal Assent November 2008 includes a requirement for Government departments to assess the risks of climate change and report to Parliament on their adaptation programmes at least every five years. In order to deliver adaptation action the Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) has developed an Adaptation Policy Framework to co-ordinate and drive forward the development of the work from Government Departments to build adaptive capacity into their organisational structures.
Adaptation to Climate Change on the MOD Estate
The consequences of climate risks for the MOD Estate depend greatly on the way we use our land. Location and site specific characteristics such as natural features, intensity of training, erosion, type of development and drainage conditions all influence the severity of an event.
Some impacts are already affecting the Estate, for instance, MOD coastal sites are vulnerable to coastal erosion, fire has been an issue at some training areas during continued dry conditions and IT services have been interrupted during periods of extreme heat.
DE aims to identify the Estate’s vulnerabilities on a site by site basis to effectively build adaptive capacity and also respond to the Department’s duty under the UK Climate Change Act 2008. DE is currently developing tools that will help the MOD Estate to assess its risks and vulnerabilities to climate change, now and in the future and aid to prioritise the management decisions that will increase resilience to climatic impacts:
• A Climate Impacts Risk Assessment Method (CIRAM) that will be used to assess the risks and potential opportunities of climate change on the MOD estate; and
• A Weather Incidents Recording Method to identify existing vulnerabilities to current weather.
Climate Impacts Risk Assessment Method (CIRAM)
CIRAM is being developed by DE to accurately establish both the risks from the impact of climate change on the MOD estate and any associated adaptation measures that might be necessary on a site by site basis; in order to minimise costs, interruption to business and the necessity for remedial action.
The method will integrate with tools within the MOD Sustainability and Environmental Appraisal Tool Handbook (see related pages), particularly Sustainability Appraisal, and other risk assessments methods (e.g. Health & Safety). It will contribute to wider Sustainable Development performance, through efficiencies, buildings that are designed fitness for purpose, the longevity and flexibility of solutions and managing social impacts of sudden and extreme weather events.
As part of the development the method will be validated by trial on four sites with a representative range of estate issues. This will also provide results and provide worked examples for future use by staff on other sites.
The development of this methodology is aimed to be completed by the end of 2009. It will be rolled out across the estate for completion by staff at site level. This will be part of an on-going programme commencing 2010 on our priority operational sites.
Soldiers from 2nd Signal Regiment and 34 Field Hospital help reinforce flood defences at City of York city centre (3rd November 2000)
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Weather Incidents Recording Method
DE is developing a Weather Incidents Recording Method to better understand MOD existing vulnerabilities to present climate. This recording mechanism will aid MOD’s understanding of the impacts and consequences of weather events and assess how responses to such events have been managed, including:
• Identify the activities and services most affected (and the resultant costs incurred as a consequence), and highlight priorities for estate maintenance.
• Provide information on effectiveness of responses and highlight/share good practice.
• Assist awareness raising of the impacts of extreme weather events and the influence of climate change.
• Highlight possible future impacts.
• Provide information to inform adaptation policy measures.
• Provide evidence for the site’s Climate Impacts Risk Assessment and site management plans.