Met man fights Taliban with barometer

Dave's neatly pressed combat fatigues hang above freshly brushed desert boots. A skyward glance begins the day and gleans clues which Dave will use for the rest of it. The part he is about to play in the morning's mission will prove crucial.

The Met Office is part of the Ministry of Defence and as any serviceman will tell you, attempting to fight a war without an accurate weather forecast would be foolish in the extreme.

Indeed the success of the D-Day landings owed much to the forecast of Group Captain James Stagg who correctly predicted a window of opportunity during appalling weather in June 1944. It allowed the Allies to take the German army by surprise.

By the end of the Second World War the Met Office had more than 6,000 staff in uniform as reservists in the RAF. Now operating as the Mobile Met Unit (MMU) it has just 70 members.

In recognition of their invaluable service, MMU forecasters now receive the same campaign medals as regular forces; a tradition which dates back to the 1982 Falklands conflict.

Dave West has earned five campaign medals. A weather forecaster for a quarter of a century and an MMU volunteer since 1993, he is now back home, for a while, in Yorkshire where he serves at RAF Dishforth near Ripon.

He has been to Iraq many times and was one of the first on the ground in Afghanistan in 2002. He served in Bosnia and next year will again jet off to the Falkland Islands and Camp Bastion:

"We are all volunteers in the MMU," says Dave. "For me it is about making a difference, about being close to the operations; being part of a mission. Military decisions in Afghanistan and Iraq have been changed based on my forecasts."

But his loyalty is sorely tested and his medals have been hard won. Tours of duty last two months and consist of twelve- to fifteen-hour shifts, seven-days-a-week:

"There is no down time when you are in theatre. I went to Basra five times and I didn't once set foot outside the airport.

"In Iraq we slept in tiny re-enforced units which we fondly knew as 'coffins'. And we needed them; there were regular attacks, especially at night."

Combat weather men and women support mainly, but not exclusively, the RAF by supplying forecasts for the operating base and crucially the operating area.

As such they hold reserve commissions in the RAF, wear the uniform, and receive the same pre-deployment training as the full-timers.

Once in theatre they assume the same risks as any other member of the armed forces:

"We are very much in the thick of it. My narrowest escape was in Basra when a man who was only 30 metres from me was killed during a raid. It was night time and I was in my 'coffin'. The alarm went off and suddenly the air was filled with the deafening sound of our defences trying to intercept the incoming rockets.

"Shell cases rained all around us and then there was the thud of missiles hitting the ground.

"The drill was to put on body armour and stay in shelters until the all-clear sounded. After the attack came a different noise; that of medics shouting as they attended the scene.

"My main concern was for my colleagues who were closer to the spot where the missile landed. I was relieved to discover that they were all right, but then I learned someone else had been killed. Just two days before he had occupied the seat in front of me on the flight out to Iraq.

"My first thought was 'thank God it wasn't me.' But that quickly turned to relief for my family. My wife reads things in the papers and doesn't really like me going on operations, I try to convince her that I will be all right and firmly believe that when your numbers up... well that's it. But I hate the thought of her worrying."

Forecasting the weather in Afghanistan takes Dave back to basics. He has to rely on his wealth of experience as well as gut instinct. There are no accurate meteorological observations to guide him; the nearest come from Turkmenistan, hundreds of miles away.

Helicopter crews have specific requirements; they need to know what the visibility will be and also the likelihood of dust and sandstorms in their operating area.

Dave said:

"I learned how to forecast dust in the Middle East. You get a feel for trends. For example, if there is no dust for a fortnight the surface hardens and it takes 50 knots [93 km/h] of wind to move it. Once it has lifted the visibility can quickly reduce to ten metres.

"Then again if there has been a recent dust storm, 15 knots [28 km/h] will be enough to cause another because the ground has already been scoured."

Getting the forecast right without the sophisticated equipment Dave uses at home is no easy task and in the early days in Afghanistan it didn't help matters that his office was once a toilet in the corner of a mid-seventies Russian aircraft hangar.

But crews rely on his accuracy and he recalls a vital mission which was delayed because he stuck to his guns:

"I forecast a sandstorm which coincided with a major raid. There was a huge amount of pressure on me because I was constantly being asked if I was sure.

"I knew my forecast was correct and so I stood my ground. The commanders agreed to delay for 24 hours and I was left nervously waiting for the storm to arrive.

"I've never been so relieved to see a sandstorm in all my life. The mission would have been aborted in those conditions, but after the day's wait it went ahead successfully."

On any given shift Dave can be called upon to deliver dozens of tailor-made forecasts. These range from crews, about to go flying, who need to know the weather in a specific area, to medium range forecasts for commanders and which cover the whole country.

The phone rings constantly but it cannot be ignored. The safety of aircrew depends upon him answering it.

He may be a highly decorated war 'hero' but Dave is as phlegmatic about his role as he is modest. He said:

"It is a fulfilling job and yes it's nice to have your services recognised, but to be honest these are not medals for bravery and I'd perhaps sooner receive them in the post.

"After all I'm a weatherman and we tend to amble rather than march. I'd probably look out of place at a medal presentation ceremony."

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