CDS: Public support for Afghan mission is crucial

Sir Jock was addressing members of the think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, yesterday, in his annual Christmas lecture.

In the speech he talked about the last year in Afghanistan. He said:

"When I first went to Helmand in 2006, we had a small, tented base at Camp Bastion, an enclave in Lashkar Gah, and a handful of isolated platoon houses in the north of the province.

"Areas such as the Sangin Valley were the heart of darkness, and at that stage we had little idea of how we might come to grips with them.

"Today, at the end of 2009, we and the United States Marines provide security for over 50 per cent of the Helmand population, with more to come."

Explaining what he thinks success in Afghanistan means, he said:

"Our objective is to shrink the ungoverned spaces in which Islamist terrorist groups can hide and from which they can mount their global campaign of violence. Constraining their boundaries in this way makes them more vulnerable to direct attack.

"And it's clear that the core of Al-Qaeda has suffered considerably over the past couple of years. They're not finished. They could certainly recover if we reduced the pressure now. But conversely, if we are able to sustain that pressure for a while longer, we may very well cause them irreversible damage.

"So it's not a question of whether we should be in Afghanistan or in Pakistan - it's a question of reducing the size of the ungoverned space that straddles both countries.

"It's a single issue that has to be addressed in both countries; although the approach in each must necessarily be different.

"In Afghanistan, we aim to shrink this space by expanding Afghan governance local as much as national. So strategic success looks like the majority of the Afghan population turning, year by year, to their village, district, provincial and, to a limited extent, national political structures for the framework within which they live.

"This is inevitably a gradual process. But it's a process that depends upon a sufficient degree of enduring security.

"The international community cannot, of course, deliver that security indefinitely. So, from a purely military perspective, success looks like the Afghan National Security Forces taking responsibility, country-wide, for its provision.

"As in Iraq, international forces would then transition to a support and training mission, rather than engaging in combat operations.

"This is reflected in our strategy, and in that of the alliance as a whole."

Sir Jock said there were three keys things needed to deliver that strategy:

• A military plan that will provide sufficient security to enough of the population to give the development of governance a realistic chance, and that will build the capacity of the Afghan forces to assume responsibility for that security - General McChrystal has drawn up just such a plan.
• Sufficient military resources to allow commanders on the ground to put the plan into effect - President Obama's recent announcement, Sir Jock said, coupled with the burden-sharing efforts that we've been making within NATO, give me confidence that the necessary resources will be committed.
• Afghan political delivery. Sir Jock said President Karzai's inaugural address the other day was a good start in this regard although the issue is one of actual delivery rather than rhetoric. But he added local governance is often of much more concern to ordinary Afghans than what goes on in Kabul. The key questions for the central government are how to enable and support the growth of local governance.

Reflecting again on 2009, Sir Jock said:

"One way of looking at 2009 is, certainly, to focus on the difficult fighting of Operation PANCHAI PALANG through the summer; on the increasing threat from improvised explosive devices; on the substantial numbers of casualties that we've suffered; on the bereaved families and those struggling with life-changing wounds; and on an undeniably messy Afghan presidential election.

"And of course we should and do reflect on those things, and respond to them. Above all, we never forget the price that our people and their families are paying.

"But let me suggest another way of looking at it, and that's through the eyes of the Afghan Taliban. What I'm about to say isn't just a guess; it's a reasonable estimate based on a variety of sources.

"On the plus side, the Taliban are pleased with the turmoil over the presidential election, and feel that this played to their advantage.

"They think that their operational structure in the south is in better shape than it was at the beginning of the year, perhaps in part because of the personal efforts of Zakir, a key and seemingly effective tactical leader.

"And they've been delighted by the apparent disunity and declining levels of commitment they see amongst the international community. They watch and read our media.

"On the other hand, they're worried about their situation in Pakistan. The determination and growing capabilities of the Pakistani security services are unsettling them greatly.

"They've begun to recognise that their brutal behaviour in Afghanistan has denied them any real support amongst the ordinary citizens. They're experiencing increasing infighting amongst their leadership, and they still have nothing that looks like a coherent and co-ordinated campaign.

"They've seen President Obama's recommitment to the campaign and the scale of effort that the United States is making.

"They see recent political developments in Kabul, and the beginnings of a properly structured, long-term reintegration and reconciliation effort.

"And their fighters are war-weary, squabbling between themselves, and only too well aware of their limited life expectancy. So, not surprisingly, the Taliban are worried.

"I make this point because all too often we focus only on our own difficulties. We should remember that we've created a great many for the other side.

"We need to take this into account, and to try and make a balanced assessment of where we are today.

"My judgement is that this is a struggle in which either side can still succeed. But the Taliban can't win. They need us to fail."

Sir Jock said to avoid this requires focusing now on two things above all:

• Afghan political delivery.
• The will to see the mission through.

He said:

"It's time we recalled those famous words: in war, resolution. This endeavour is important enough to our national security to justify the price our people are paying; the mission is achievable; and at last we have a properly resourced plan to deliver the strategy.

"Our people in theatre know this. The greatest threat to their morale is not the Taliban, or IEDs, but declining will at home.

"Support for our servicemen and women is indivisible from support for this mission. Our people know that they can succeed; that we'll only fail if we choose to fail. We owe it to them, and to those we've lost, not to make that choice."

Concluding his speech, Sir Jock said:

"Afghanistan remains our focus and our main effort. It will continue so for some time to come.

"And although, as I've said, we now have a good, properly resourced plan, we can't expect plain sailing from here on in.

"The enemy always has a vote, and we shall have to be prepared to adapt accordingly. But, in adapting, we shall need to keep sight of the strategic imperatives."

Click here to read the full text from Sir Jock's speech which includes a detailed appraisal of the wider strategic environment and how Defence should be geared up to prepare for it.

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